February 2026 Housing & Economic Update | Mortgage Rates & CA Real Estate Outlook

📊 National Economic & Financial Markets Snapshot (Week Ending Feb 6, 2026)

📈 Mortgage Rates

• The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is hovering around ~6.1% — slightly up but holding near multi-year lows that we haven’t seen in years.

• 15-year fixed rates remain in the mid-5% range.

• Mortgage rates are strongly tied to 10-year Treasury yields (~4.2–4.3%), which are relatively stable but still elevated.

Why this matters: Rates near 6% — while high by historical pandemic standards — are about a full percentage point lower than recent peaks, offering some breathing room for buyers and refinancers.

📉 Bonds & Yields

• The 10-year Treasury yield remains elevated in the low-to-mid 4% range, supporting mortgage markets and influencing long-term borrowing costs.

• Bond markets are signaling moderate expectations for future interest rate stability, as traders balance growth data, inflation, and Federal Reserve policy.

📊 Stock Market Performance

• U.S. equities experienced choppy performance this week, with weakness in tech stocks and mixed signals from macroeconomic data.

  • S&P 500: down ~2% this week

  • Nasdaq: weaker performance, particularly in software/AI names

  • Dow Jones: relatively flat overall

• Earnings season and Fed policy outlook are key drivers of sentiment moving into mid-February.

What this signals: Higher market volatility can make buyers and sellers more cautious — often slowing decision-making in real estate until clearer economic trends emerge.

🏡 U.S. National Housing Market Trends

• Home price growth nationally has cooled sharply, with average annual appreciation slowing to ~0.9%.

• Existing home sales have been modestly positive but remain subdued compared to pre-pandemic levels, reflecting affordability challenges.

• Mortgage rates declining from prior highs have helped reduce monthly payments modestly, making some buyers re-enter the market.

Bottom line: The national housing market continues its rebalancing phase — less frenzied than the boom years, with buyers gaining more negotiating leverage.

🏘️ Local Housing Market — Westlake Village, Thousand Oaks & Santa Monica (CA)

📍 Westlake Village

• Median sale price ~ ~$959K (down YoY)

• Days on market ~ ~86 days — homes are taking longer to sell.

• Buyers have greater negotiation power, especially on homes priced above market expectations.

Seller takeaway: Pricing and value matter more than ever here. Overpricing results in longer time on market and potential price cuts.

📍 Thousand Oaks

• Median sale price ~ $1M and relatively stable.

• Days on market ~ ~77 days — suggests balanced activity.

Market insight: This is a more balanced sub-market where well-presented, accurately priced homes are moving steadily.

📍 Santa Monica

• Median sale price ~ $1.9M, significantly up YoY.

• Days on market ~ ~98 days — indicates buyers are selective.

Key note: In high-priced coastal markets, condition and turnkey readiness often separate homes that sell quickly vs those that linger.

🏡 What This Means for You

🛒 Home Buyers

Opportunities:

• Mortgage rates near 6% — not as low as a few years ago but much cheaper than recent peaks — mean monthly payments are more predictable and financing costs are moderating.

• Increased inventory and longer market times in many areas give buyers more negotiation leverage on price, repairs, closing credits, and rate buydowns.

Challenges:

• Prices in premium locales (like Santa Monica and parts of Westlake Village) remain high.

• Affordability remains a central challenge for many buyers.

Smart Buyer Action:
Consider locking rates when you are comfortable — small rate increases (even a quarter point) can materially affect monthly payment.

💰 Home Sellers

Levers that work right now:

• Price competitively and realistically based on current comps.

• Offer seller credits or rate buydown options to expand the buyer pool.

• Stage, present, and market homes to minimize time on market and maximize perceived value.

What not to do: Avoid pricing purely based on historical highs — buyers today are focused on payment comfort, not list price alone.

📈 Home Investors

Investor playbook:

• Focus on cash-flow markets or properties with clear value-add potential (renovation, subdivision, rental income).

• Consider ARMs cautiously — if you plan to hold for 3–5 years, a modest initial ARM rate plus strong upside can outperform locked high fixed rates.

• Evaluate how bond market movements (yields rise → cap rates adjust) may affect property valuations and refinancing cost assumptions.

🧠 Smart Plan of Action (This Week)

1. Buyers:

   • Pre-qualify with a lender and consider negotiating seller contributions toward rate buydowns.

   • Target homes with strong fundamentals — condition, location, and comps.

   • Monitor Treasury yields as early indicators of future mortgage rate movements.

2. Sellers:

   • Reprice listings with recent comps and buyer payment thresholds in mind.

   • Invest in staging/repairs that show value.

   • Consider incentives like closing cost help or rate buydowns rather than repeated price cuts.

3. Investors:

   • Assess cap rate trends in your target sub-markets.

   • Hedge risk by locking into financing if you expect future rate volatility.

   • Track earnings season impact on broader markets, as equity volatility often translates to real estate sentiment shifts.

📞 Your Next Step (Call to Action)

Whether you're buying, selling, or investing in today’s evolving real estate environment — especially here in Westlake Village, Thousand Oaks, and Santa Monica — data and strategy matter more than ever.

👉 Message me today for a custom, neighborhood-specific market plan tailored to your goals and risk tolerance — including payment projections based on real mortgage rates and specific strategies to maximize your outcome.

Let’s turn market insight into action.

Tina Lucarelli - Global & Local Realtor - (310) 738-8089 - The ONE Luxury Properties, Inc.

www.ListwithTina.com