Economic & Housing Market Update — Week Ending January 31, 2026
If you felt a little “whiplash” in the markets this week, you weren’t imagining it. Stocks finished choppy, bond yields stayed elevated, and mortgage rates held in the low-6% range—keeping housing affordability and buyer psychology front-and-center as we head into February.
Quick takeaways (the “so what?”)
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Stocks: Major indexes ended the week mixed to slightly down, with investors reacting to shifting expectations around future rate policy.
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Bonds: The 10-year Treasury yield closed the week around the mid-4% range, which matters because it’s a key driver of mortgage rates.
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Mortgage rates: Freddie Mac’s weekly 30-year fixed rate came in at 6.10% (as of Jan 29, 2026)—basically steady, but still high enough to shape demand.
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Housing locally: Inventory and “days on market” continue to matter more than headlines. Pricing is very neighborhood- and condition-specific right now.
Stock market recap: sentiment is driving the week-to-week moves
U.S. stocks slipped on Friday (Jan 30) as investors weighed uncertainty around the future direction of rate policy.
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S&P 500: fell on Friday and ended the week slightly higher overall.
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Dow Jones Industrial Average: down on Friday; week ended roughly flat-to-down.
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Nasdaq Composite: down more sharply on Friday; week ended slightly lower.
Why it matters for real estate:
When markets feel uncertain, you typically see:
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Buyers get more cautious (they negotiate harder and move slower).
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Sellers who need to sell price more realistically sooner.
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High-end activity can remain resilient when equity wealth is strong—but it becomes more selective (premium paid for turnkey + great location; discounts for “projects”).
Bonds: the quiet driver behind mortgage rates
Bond yields stayed elevated this week. From the U.S. Department of the Treasury daily curve, the 10-year Treasury on Jan 30, 2026 was 4.26% (with the 30-year at 4.87%).
Why it matters: Mortgage rates tend to track the 10-year yield more than the Fed’s day-to-day rate decisions, which is why home loan rates can stay sticky even when people think “the Fed will cut soon.”
Mortgage rates: steady, but still the affordability gatekeeper
Freddie Mac reported:
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30-year fixed: 6.10% (as of Jan 29, 2026)
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15-year fixed: 5.49%
And according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, mortgage applications fell in their latest weekly survey (week ending Jan 23, 2026), reflecting how sensitive demand remains to rate movement and affordability.
Real-world impact:
At ~6% rates, buyers focus more on monthly payment than purchase price. That tends to:
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Increase demand for rate buydowns and seller credits (where allowed/feasible),
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Put more pressure on homes that are overpriced or not turnkey, and
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Keep “must-have” homes in great locations moving—just with more negotiation.
Housing market snapshot: Westlake Village, Thousand Oaks, Santa Monica
Local markets aren’t moving in one direction uniformly—pricing is being determined by condition, location, and days on market.
Westlake Village
Latest Redfin snapshot (Dec 2025 data shown on the market page):
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Median sale price: $959K, down 31% year-over-year
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Avg. days on market: 86 days
What this suggests: Buyers are shopping carefully, and sellers need to win on presentation + pricing. The best homes can still sell well; the “in-between” listings tend to sit and invite discounts.
Thousand Oaks
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Median sale price: about $1.0M, up 3.4% year-over-year
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Avg. time to sell: around 77 days
What this suggests: More stability here than many expect—buyers are still active, but not rushed. A strong strategy (prep + pricing + marketing) matters.
Santa Monica
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Median sale price: about $1.9M, up 29.2% year-over-year
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Avg. time to sell: around 98 days
What this suggests: Even with bigger price jumps, the longer timeline signals buyers are selective. Unique/turnkey properties show best; anything with functional obsolescence or pricing stretch gets negotiated.
Important note on timing: These city snapshots are based on the most recently reported monthly housing-market data available on those pages as of this week (often reflecting closed sales from the prior month), not only contracts written this week.
What this week means for home buyers (local, practical take)
If you’re buying in Westlake Village, Thousand Oaks, or Santa Monica right now:
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Use the market’s patience to your advantage. With longer days on market in many pockets, you can negotiate on price, credits, repairs, and/or rate buydowns.
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Watch bond yields as much as Fed headlines. Mortgage rates are being driven by the 10-year yield—so daily rate quotes can change even when the Fed is quiet.
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Be decisive on the “A” homes. Turnkey, well-located, correctly priced homes can still attract competition—even in a slower market.
What this week means for home sellers (how to win right now)
Sellers who do best in this environment tend to do three things:
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Price to the market you’re in (not the market you remember). Buyers are payment-sensitive at ~6% rates.
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Reduce friction: pre-inspection (when appropriate), clear disclosures, clean + staged presentation, and easy showing access.
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Offer smart incentives (strategically): A targeted credit for a rate buydown can expand your buyer pool and protect your net more than a series of small price drops.
Call to action (Tina)
If you’re thinking about buying or selling in Westlake Village, Thousand Oaks, or Santa Monica, I can help you make sense of what’s actually happening on your street—not just what the headlines say.
Message me for:
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A neighborhood-specific pricing strategy (buyers or sellers)
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A custom “payment plan” scenario based on today’s rates
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A quick, honest market value check (no pressure)
Tina Lucarelli
Local Real Estate Advisor | Westlake Village • Thousand Oaks • Santa Monica
📞 Call/Text: (your number) | ✉️ (your email) | 🌐 (your website)
