Economic & Housing Market Update

Week Ending July 11, 2026

The U.S. economy closed the week with a mix of strong stock-market performance, persistent inflation concerns, rising bond yields, and continued affordability challenges for homebuyers. While investors remain optimistic about artificial intelligence, corporate earnings, and long-term economic growth, global conflict, tariffs, energy prices, and elevated borrowing costs continue to influence consumer confidence and the housing market.

Mortgage Rates Move Higher

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased to 6.49%, up from 6.43% the previous week. The average 15-year fixed mortgage rate also rose to 5.82%. Although today’s rates remain slightly below where they were one year ago, they continue to limit purchasing power for buyers and discourage homeowners with lower existing rates from selling.

Mortgage rates are closely influenced by the 10-year Treasury yield, which ended the week near 4.56%. Rising inflation expectations, higher oil prices, geopolitical uncertainty, and concerns that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates elevated are putting upward pressure on Treasury yields and mortgage rates.

For buyers, this means monthly payments remain an important consideration. However, buyers may have more negotiating power today than they did during the highly competitive markets of previous years. Seller credits, interest-rate buydowns, repair concessions, and flexible closing terms can help make a purchase more affordable.

Inflation Remains a Concern

The latest available Consumer Price Index showed that consumer prices increased 4.2% over the 12 months ending in May, accelerating from 3.8% the previous month. Food prices rose 3.1% year over year, while continued pressure from housing, services, tariffs, transportation, and energy costs has kept inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

The June inflation report had not yet been released as of July 11. Investors will watch that report closely because another elevated reading could increase the likelihood that interest rates remain higher for longer.

Persistent inflation affects real estate in several ways. It raises construction, insurance, repair, labor, and household expenses. It can also keep mortgage rates elevated. At the same time, real estate has historically been viewed as a long-term tangible asset that may help homeowners build equity as rents and replacement costs rise.

Job Market and Unemployment

The U.S. economy added approximately 57,000 jobs in June, while the unemployment rate remained relatively stable at 4.2%. Hiring continued in professional and business services, health care, and social assistance, while leisure and hospitality experienced employment losses.

The labor market is still functioning, but job creation has slowed considerably from the stronger pace seen earlier in the year. A stable employment environment generally supports housing demand because buyers need confidence in their income before making a major purchase. However, slower job growth, higher consumer prices, and rising borrowing costs may cause some households to delay purchasing or choose a lower price range.

In Southern California, buyers continue to consider not only employment stability but also insurance costs, property taxes, commuting expenses, school districts, and the long-term value of the community.

Stock Market: S&P 500 and Nasdaq Rise

Stocks ended the week with generally positive results, led by technology and artificial-intelligence-related companies.

The S&P 500 closed at 7,575.39, rising approximately 1.2% for the week. The Nasdaq gained about 1.7%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 52,637.01 but declined approximately 0.5% for the week.

Investor enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence, semiconductor demand, and the upcoming corporate earnings season helped lift the broader market. However, the gains remain concentrated in certain technology companies, while smaller businesses and more interest-rate-sensitive sectors have faced greater pressure.

A rising stock market can support luxury real estate by improving household wealth, investment portfolios, and buyer confidence. This is especially relevant in Westlake Village, Lake Sherwood, North Ranch, Malibu, and other affluent Southern California communities where buyers may use stock proceeds, substantial down payments, or cash to purchase property.

Bonds and Treasury Yields

The bond market weakened during the week as Treasury yields moved higher. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to approximately 4.56%, while the two-year yield ended near 4.21%. Bond prices move in the opposite direction of yields, so rising yields caused Treasury bond values to decline.

Higher Treasury yields can create competition for investment dollars because investors may choose government bonds rather than stocks or real estate. More importantly for housing, elevated Treasury yields typically translate into higher mortgage rates.

A meaningful decline in mortgage rates will likely require clearer evidence that inflation is cooling, economic growth is moderating, and global energy risks are easing.

How World Events Are Affecting the Economy

International tensions continue to play a significant role in financial markets. Conflict involving Iran and concerns surrounding shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have created uncertainty around global oil supplies. Although oil prices eased slightly at the end of the week, they remained sensitive to developments in the Middle East.

Higher oil prices can raise gasoline, airline, shipping, manufacturing, and food-distribution costs. Those costs may eventually reach consumers and contribute to inflation, which can keep interest rates and mortgage rates elevated.

Tariffs are another concern. Higher import costs can affect building materials, appliances, vehicles, electronics, home furnishings, and everyday household goods. The Federal Reserve has identified tariffs, geopolitical conflict, energy costs, and rapid artificial-intelligence investment as factors contributing to inflationary pressure.

At the same time, strong investment in artificial intelligence and technology infrastructure is supporting parts of the stock market and economy. This creates an unusual environment in which financial markets may rise even while consumers continue to feel pressure from higher living costs.

Southern California Housing Market

Westlake Village

Westlake Village continues to benefit from limited supply, excellent schools, a desirable lifestyle, lake communities, gated neighborhoods, and continued demand from buyers relocating from Los Angeles and the San Fernando Valley.

Over the three-month period ending in May, the median sale price was approximately $1.85 million, up significantly from the same period one year earlier. Homes sold in an average of approximately 34 days, compared with 27 days last year. Because Westlake Village has a relatively small number of monthly sales, the median price can shift substantially depending on the mix of luxury properties sold.

The market remains strongest for homes that are beautifully presented, correctly priced, updated, and located in highly desirable neighborhoods. Buyers are selective and frequently compare condition, insurance costs, views, lot size, school boundaries, homeowners association fees, and future renovation expenses.

Luxury and cash buyers remain active, making Westlake Village somewhat less sensitive to mortgage-rate changes than entry-level markets. However, overpriced or poorly prepared homes can still remain on the market longer and require price adjustments.

Thousand Oaks

Thousand Oaks is experiencing a more balanced and price-sensitive market. The median sale price over the three months ending in May was approximately $1.11 million, down about 1.3% year over year. Homes sold in an average of approximately 40 days, compared with 36 days one year earlier.

The broader Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura market recorded a median of approximately 48 days on the market in June, demonstrating that buyers generally have more time to evaluate homes and negotiate than they did during the pandemic-era market.

For sellers, pricing accurately from the beginning is essential. Buyers are paying close attention to deferred maintenance, roof and HVAC age, insurance availability, remodeling costs, and monthly payments.

For buyers, the slower pace may create opportunities to negotiate repairs, closing costs, temporary rate buydowns, and other favorable terms.

Los Angeles

The Los Angeles housing market continues to vary dramatically by neighborhood and price range. Over the three-month period ending in May, the median sale price was approximately $1.05 million, down about 0.7% from the previous year. Homes sold in an average of approximately 48 days, compared with 46 days last year.

Turnkey homes in desirable locations can still attract strong interest, while properties requiring major renovation or carrying high insurance, tax, or homeowners association expenses may take longer to sell.

The Los Angeles market is no longer uniformly favoring sellers. Buyers have become more cautious and are carefully evaluating value, condition, commute, neighborhood amenities, insurance costs, and monthly affordability.

Sellers should not rely on outdated comparable sales from the peak of the market. Strategic preparation, professional photography, broad digital marketing, and realistic pricing are increasingly important.

What This Means for Buyers and Sellers

For buyers, elevated mortgage rates should not automatically prevent a purchase. The current market may offer more choices, fewer bidding wars, and improved negotiating opportunities. A buyer can potentially refinance later if rates decline, but the purchase price negotiated today remains permanent.

For sellers, presentation and pricing are critical. Buyers will pay a premium for homes that are clean, updated, staged, professionally marketed, and move-in ready. Homes that enter the market at an unrealistic price risk becoming stale and may ultimately sell for less after multiple price reductions.

Real estate remains highly local. National headlines provide important context, but the value and marketability of a home depend on its specific neighborhood, condition, location, lot, upgrades, school district, view, and competition.

Call to Action

Whether you are thinking about buying, selling, investing, or simply want to understand what your home may be worth in today’s changing market, having a local strategy is more important than ever.

Contact Tina Lucarelli, Global Luxury Real Estate Advisor, for a confidential home-value consultation, a personalized market analysis, or a customized home-buying plan for Westlake Village, Thousand Oaks, Lake Sherwood, Agoura Hills, or the greater Los Angeles area.

Visit ListwithTina.com to begin your next real estate move with local knowledge, experienced negotiation, and a personalized plan designed around your goals.