The week ending September 19 brought an important shift for financial markets and real estate. Inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s target; oil prices and geopolitical tensions are adding uncertainty; Treasury yields have climbed sharply, and mortgage rates have moved back toward 7%.

At the same time, Southern California real estate continues to show remarkable resilience, although conditions vary considerably from one community to another.

INFLATION: PRICES REMAIN A CONCERN

The latest Consumer Price Index showed inflation accelerating in August.

Consumer prices increased 0.4% for the month and 3.4% from a year earlier. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3% for the month and 2.4% year-over-year.

One of the biggest contributors was gasoline, which jumped 3.9% in August. Shelter costs were also 3.0% higher than a year earlier.

Inflation matters tremendously to real estate because persistent price pressures can keep Treasury yields and mortgage rates elevated.

JOB MARKET: EMPLOYMENT CONTINUES TO GROW

The latest employment report showed the U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs in August, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%.

Employment gains included food services, drinking establishments and local government education, while the information sector lost jobs.

For housing, the employment picture is important. A functioning labor market supports household income and housing demand, but continued economic strength can also make it more difficult for inflation to return quickly to the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

FEDERAL RESERVE RAISES INTEREST RATES

One of the week's biggest developments came Wednesday, September 16, when the Federal Reserve increased the federal funds target range by 0.25 percentage point to 3.75%–4.00%.

The Fed said economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace but acknowledged that inflation remains elevated and uncertainty is high, in part because of geopolitical developments.

It is important to remember that the Federal Reserve does not directly set mortgage rates. Mortgage rates are influenced heavily by the bond market, particularly longer-term Treasury yields, inflation expectations and investor expectations about future economic conditions.

STOCK MARKET: A VOLATILE WEEK

Wall Street experienced considerable volatility as investors reacted to the Fed, inflation concerns, oil prices and rising bond yields.

At Friday's close:

Dow Jones Industrial Average: 51,682.64, down 0.2% Friday and approximately 1.7% for the week.

S&P 500: 7,650.50, up 0.2% Friday but down approximately 0.1% for the week.

Nasdaq Composite: 26,522.55, up 0.4% Friday and approximately 0.7% for the week.

Technology shares provided some support late in the week, but higher borrowing costs continued to weigh on the broader market.

BONDS: THE 10-YEAR TREASURY APPROACHES 5%

The bond market may be the most important story for prospective homebuyers right now.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield ended Friday at approximately 5.0%, after moving above 5% during the week's trading.

Higher Treasury yields generally put upward pressure on mortgage rates because investors demand greater returns for longer-term debt.

This helps explain why mortgage rates moved higher even as buyers and sellers continue hoping for lower borrowing costs.

MORTGAGE RATES MOVE BACK TOWARD 7%

According to Freddie Mac's September 17 survey:

30-year fixed mortgage: 6.95%
Previous week: 6.76%
One year ago: 6.26%

15-year fixed mortgage: 6.26%
Previous week: 6.09%
One year ago: 5.41%.

That nearly 0.20-percentage-point weekly increase in the 30-year rate matters for purchasing power.

For buyers, however, the interest rate is only one part of the equation. Increased days on market and motivated sellers can create opportunities to negotiate purchase prices, credits, repairs or potentially an interest-rate buydown.

HOW WORLD EVENTS ARE AFFECTING MORTGAGE RATES

Housing is increasingly connected to events taking place far beyond Southern California.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have contributed to elevated energy prices, with Brent crude remaining above $100 per barrel during the week. Higher energy costs can filter through the economy through transportation, manufacturing and consumer prices.

At the same time, central banks around the world are confronting inflation pressures. Global bond yields have risen as investors reassess how long restrictive monetary policies may remain necessary.

For American homebuyers, the chain reaction can look like this:

Geopolitical uncertainty → higher energy prices → inflation concerns → higher bond yields → pressure on mortgage rates.

That is why mortgage rates can move substantially even without a direct change in housing fundamentals.

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET

Despite affordability challenges, California housing activity improved in August.

Existing single-family home sales increased 2.4% from July and 1.4% from August 2025, according to the California Association of Realtors. California's statewide median home price reached approximately $901,420, up 1.6% from July and slightly higher than a year earlier.

Locally, however, the numbers tell very different stories.

WESTLAKE VILLAGE

Westlake Village continues to demonstrate the strength of desirable luxury communities.

Over the three months ending August, the median sale price was approximately $1.45 million, up 5.4% year-over-year. Homes spent approximately 50 days on the market, compared with 36 days a year earlier.

That combination is important: prices have remained strong, but buyers generally have more time to make decisions.

For sellers, presentation, condition, professional marketing and accurate pricing remain extremely important. Buyers at today's interest rates are more selective and are paying close attention to value.

THOUSAND OAKS

Thousand Oaks presents a different picture.

The median sale price over the three months ending August was approximately $1.07 million, down 6.6% year-over-year. Homes spent approximately 45 days on the market, while sales volume was up about 2% from a year earlier.

This creates potential opportunities for buyers who were previously priced out of the market.

For sellers, it reinforces the importance of analyzing recent neighborhood-specific comparable sales rather than relying on prices achieved during stronger portions of the previous market.

AGOURA HILLS

Agoura Hills recorded particularly strong sales-price results.

The three-month median sale price was approximately $1.31 million, up 11.9% year-over-year, while August sales increased 28.2% from a year earlier. Homes averaged approximately 49 days on market during the three-month period.

The numbers also illustrate why local real estate cannot be understood solely through national headlines. Individual communities—and even individual neighborhoods—can perform very differently.

LOS ANGELES

The City of Los Angeles recorded a three-month median sale price of approximately $1.06 million, down 1.4% year-over-year.

Approximately 5,004 homes sold in August, up 3.3% from a year earlier, while the median time on market was approximately 52 days.

Meanwhile, Realtor.com reported a median Los Angeles listing price of approximately $1.05 million in August, down 4.5% year-over-year, with about 16.6% of active listings carrying a price reduction.

That gives buyers additional negotiating opportunities, particularly on properties that have remained on the market longer or have already experienced a price reduction.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR BUYERS AND SELLERS?

For buyers, higher mortgage rates are challenging affordability, but today's market can provide negotiating opportunities that were difficult to find during extremely competitive markets. Purchase price, seller credits, rate buydowns, repairs and closing terms can all become part of a well-structured negotiation.

If mortgage rates eventually decline, buyers who purchase now may also have the opportunity to refinance later, subject to future rates, qualification and refinancing costs.

For sellers, buyers are still purchasing homes, but they are increasingly price-conscious. Homes that are properly prepared, professionally marketed and priced according to current comparable sales have a significant advantage over listings priced according to yesterday's market.

For investors, changing market conditions can create opportunities where increased days on market, deferred maintenance or motivated sellers allow for more creative negotiations.

THE BOTTOM LINE

The housing market isn't moving in one direction.

Westlake Village and Agoura Hills have recently demonstrated stronger pricing trends, while Thousand Oaks and Los Angeles have experienced more price adjustment. Meanwhile, mortgage rates near 7%, a nearly 5% 10-year Treasury yield, elevated oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty are keeping affordability at the center of the housing conversation.

In a market like this, local knowledge matters more than national headlines.

Thinking About Buying, Selling, Investing or Relocating?

Whether you're considering selling your home in Westlake Village, Thousand Oaks, Agoura Hills, Calabasas or the greater Los Angeles area, or you're looking for the right opportunity to purchase, today's changing market requires a strategy based on current neighborhood data—not last year's market.

I provide my clients with a full-service approach, from pricing and preparing a property for market to professional marketing, negotiations and managing the transaction through closing.

Thinking about making a move? Contact me for a complimentary, no-obligation market analysis and personalized real estate strategy.

Tina Marie Lucarelli (310) 738-8089
Luxury Real Estate Advisor
Westlake Village | Thousand Oaks | Agoura Hills | Calabasas | Los Angeles